Brexit itself has not been canceled

Theresa May suffered a crushing defeat in the Brexit parliamentary vote. They say that forecasts in politics are an ungrateful thing. However, there are such events, in relation to the outcome of which, it seems impossible to err. The situation with brexitis, i.e. Britain’s withdrawal from the European Union undoubtedly refers to such predictable events. On the eve of the historical, in the opinion of the British press, the event - a vote on the agreement to leave the EU, developed by Prime Minister Theresa May and agreed with Brussels, few doubted her defeat. They argued only about its scale. Watch CNN, MSNBC,CBSN, Fox News - us news live stream.

Teresa May, alas, no luck. She, she should give her credit, showed herself from the best side and fought until the last minute, but everything was against her. The prime minister suffered not just a defeat, but a rout. 432 deputies of the House of Commons, including even many Theresa May, party members of the Conservative Party, voted against her plan for “parting” with Europe. May supported only 202 parliamentarians. A gap of 230 votes can only say one thing: Prime Minister May has suffered a crushing defeat. Even the most persistent opponents of the prime minister did not expect such a defeat.

The leader of the Labor Party, Jeremy Corbin, by the way, the Euroskeptic himself, immediately offered to hold a vote of no confidence in the May government. It will pass today, January 16, if parliamentarians have time to finish the debate by the evening. If Teresa May is defeated in this vote, the Brits will have to wait for early elections. If Mrs. May resists, she can continue to work. Although it would be difficult to call it a real job, because not only Laborites, but also quite a few conservatives were against it. By the way, as for the disgruntled May in the Conservative Party, they will have to wait for the re-election of the leader until the end of the year, because in December 2018 she won a vote of confidence in the Conservative Party.

All this, of course, the internal British affairs. Meanwhile, the brexit itself has not been canceled. At 11 o'clock in the evening on March 29, the UK should formally cease to be part of the European Union. However, after yesterday’s vote in the House of Commons, the approved timetable for withdrawing the kingdom from the EU is in jeopardy.

European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker canceled all meetings and stayed in Brussels to be at such a crucial moment in the workplace. In Brussels, they have officially officially expressed deep regret over the results of the voting in London, but they are not going to make serious concessions that will allow May to make changes to his plan and put him back to the ballot in parliament. At least for now. The only thing that London seems to be counting on is the extension of the exit procedure, say, by July, so that Teresa May can hold a second vote in parliament.

Now Therese has three working days to present the new agreement plan with Brussels to Parliament. This means that by Monday, January 21, she must agree with Juncker and the head of the European Council, Donald Tusk, at least about some symbolic concessions that could be offered to deputies in London as an alternative to the rejected plan. But even if Mrs. May succeeds in this, her chances of success in the re-voting will still be low, because after the defeat she suffered yesterday, the role of parliament in Brexit will increase dramatically and he will be able to make any changes to the premier's plan.

And yet, this scenario seems the most likely. At least, the representative of Theresa May has already officially announced that she is not going to resign. Premier intends to continue to work on the release of the United Kingdom from the European Union.

In this case, we should not forget about the second side. Even if the British approve the new agreement, it must be approved by the European parliamentarians, as well as the heads of the EU member states. Obviously, even with the most favorable scenario, Brexit will not take place on March 29, but later.It is very desirable to do this before the end of May, because the elections to the European Parliament will take place on May 23-26. If by that time Britain will formally remain in the EU, then the contract approval process will have to start over, because other people will work in the EP.

There are, of course, less likely options for further developments. For example, a second referendum on UK membership in the European Union, the results of which, it is possible, could have been different. Even less likely is the option of using Article 50 of the EU Charter, i.e. cancellation of brexitis. It is even less likely, although it is Britain that United Europe is pushing for it. At least, the European Court in December allowed London to unilaterally cancel brexit and remain a member of the EU.

There is, of course, a tough option that does not suit anyone - a British exit from the EU without any agreements. Hard brexit can occur automatically if by March 29 no decisions are made and everything will remain as it is now.