Johnson and Brexit: British policy threatens to trample

On September 9, the British Queen signed the law passed by Parliament (House of Commons on September 4 and House of Lords on September 6). Thus, the law banning hard Brexit, tied the hands of Prime Minister Boris Johnson, came into force. The expected obstruction in the House of Lords did not happen. But the queen did not dare to veto the act adopted by parliament, reports usanewstoday.live.

The failure to arrange a “long hearing” in the House of Lords seems to mean that the brackets leaders from the Conservative Party and personally Prime Minister Johnson have now adopted some other plan for Britain’s exit from the European Union, set for October 31, bypassing the Parliament’s the law.

In the meantime, satisfied with its actions in its new majority, the British parliament dispersed until October 14 for an extraordinary “vacation” appointed by the Queen at the “request” of the Prime Minister. Before that, the parliament once again rejected Johnson’s proposal to hold early parliamentary elections, calling for them on October 14, that is, a couple of days before the EU summit, at which the fate of relations with Great Britain will be decided. Extraordinary elections, held before October 31, seem too risky for the new parliamentary majority. Current polls show that conservatives at the national level are ahead of the Labor Party by as much as 10 points. That's why Johnson was not able to get two-thirds of the vote on his proposal for early elections. Note that if the elections are held after Brexit, which failed on October 31, the Labor Party may bypass the conservatives a little.

In Britain, it has never happened that a law directed against the prime minister was adopted with the support of a majority in parliament, which at the same time refuses to take power. And all this for the simple reason that the new majority is situational in nature. He still has enough unity to confront Johnson’s “tough Brexit,” but he is no longer there to support the premiership of left-wing Labor. The new majority does not have any unifying or compromise figure to form a government and act further in the current parliament.

On September 3 and 4, Prime Minister Johnson lost the parliamentary majority and suffered three consecutive defeats in a parliamentary vote. The formed anti-prime coalition of Labor, Liberal Democrats, and the Tories defected to them voted in favor of a law blocking Brexit without an agreement with the EU. If an agreement with Brussels is not reached by October 17, the law will require Prime Minister Johnson to request from Brussels a new deadline for Britain to leave the EU, that is, to do something that Johnson has publicly repudiated more than once.

Johnson said last Friday that Parliament “passed a law that forces me to ask Brussels to extend the Brexit term.” This is something that I will never do. “

Therefore, no matter what happens, but Great Britain will leave the EU for Halloween or for All Saints' Day — this is how to choose, for an individual taste.

Now Johnson claims that he will nevertheless achieve an agreement with the EU by October 17 and Britain will withdraw from the union on the 31st, as planned. Well, then what about the Brexit talks with the Europeans? Never mind. British ministers say negotiations are not even going on. The weekend’s meeting between the British Prime Minister and the Prime Minister of the Republic of Ireland (IR), Leo Varadkar, once again showed that the most difficult issue under the agreement with the EU — the border between Iran and Northern Ireland — is not being resolved.

At the same time, Johnson firmly promises, under any conditions, to withdraw Britain from the EU on October 31, which means: there will be no postponement required by parliamentary law. Britain continues to demand the exclusion of the main conflict point from the agreement — on the Irish border.

The Sunday Times claimed yesterday that the Johnson government was planning to “work through” the law and “tear down the chainsaw” all that stood in the way of Brexit. In this situation, four possible options for the actions of British Prime Minister Boris Johnson are being examined in order to avoid the Brexit hitch proposed by the parliament. But one of them is definitely threatening the British Prime Minister after all.

These are the following options:

— the prime minister refuses to comply with the parliamentary law of September 4 and goes to court to challenge it, which is why the case is being delayed, and meanwhile the “hard Brexit” happens automatically;

— the government will appeal the legality of the law in court, and in the meantime ...;

— the prime minister, following the law, sends a letter asking for a postponement to Brussels, but accompanies it with another letter — from the government — with a message that it is against the postponement; the EU summit refuses to give such a split for a new respite;

— the Prime Minister, following the law, sends a letter requesting a postponement, but agrees in advance with the leader of one of the EU countries, — presumably, the Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban — to veto the decision on the postponement. 

In the meantime, last Sunday, French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian threatened to veto Brexit’s extension, citing a “disturbing” lack of progress. Against the postponement in a newspaper interview, the Dutch Minister of Commerce Sigrid Kaag also spoke out. True, in confidential conversations, EU diplomats still argue that the extension is likely to be received. Brussels is for Britain to remain part of the EU and for Brexit to fail.

For Britain, former Attorney General Dominic Greave wrote in a Sunday Observer that non-compliance would mean that the prime minister “could be sent to prison.” Former Conservative leader Ian Duncan Smith urged Johnson to break the law and become a “martyr” for the Brexit cause. In this regard, the American president also encourages Johnson from overseas. The other day, Trump told reporters:

“Boris knows how to win. Do not worry about him. He will be fine. ”

Indeed, if Boris Johnson violates the accepted British political norms, then there will be a “traumatization of British politics”, that's all. So, the British Prime Minister now has the opportunity to become in the history of the country on a par with other “great British”. To do this, go against the will of the British Parliament. In this perspective, a prison would become the cement that would finally “concrete” a place in British history for the “great Briton” Johnson. However, it may happen that, according to a well-known rule, the winner will not be judged.