Short-term forecasting of volcanic eruptions based on KaY-wave monitoring.

УДК 550.343.62: 550.343.64

Short-term forecasting of volcanic eruptions based on KaY-wave monitoring.

Yagodin Alexandr.

Geophysicist. Chief Researcher.

Haifa earthquake predicting laboratory (private).

Israel. Haifa.

E-mail: predict.y@gmail.com

Relevance of research. Volcanic eruptions were predicted only based on observations of local seismicity, the state and physical parameters of the earth's crust and volcano in the zone close to the volcano and by "volcanic tremor" - seismic phenomena in the volcano zone. The obtained results allow us to take a fresh look at the nature of the Kozyrev-Yagodin wave, make it possible to give an accurate short-term forecast of the future volcan eruption several days before its onset by accurate measurements of the KaY wave.

Цель работы. Нахождение надежного предвестника, физически связанного с извержением вулкана, обеспечивающего прогноз места и времени будущего извержения за десятки часов, несколько суток до начала извержения. Как и в случае землетрясений, при постановке сети станций с шагом 500 – 1000 км, и количеством станций не менее 5, метод обеспечивает достоверность близкую к 100%. Характерная осциллограмма пачки пиков аномалии, прогнозирующей будущее извержение также обеспечивает высокую достоверность прогноза.

In medicine, was registered the fact of increased pain sensitivity to low frequencies (acoustic, mechanical vibrations, magnetic fields) of a woman from California - Charlotte King.

This pain syndrome is named Charlotte's syndrome.

On her website, she described her painful sensations a few hours before the volcanic eruption hundreds of kilometers from her location. The reactions of her organism and before volcanic eruptions at distances over 1000 km are noted.

This suggests that between earthquakes and eruptions of volcanoes there is a similarity in the participation of a low-frequency wave. Subsequent experiments of the author showed that, as in the case of earthquakes, we are dealing with a wave moving at a speed of 100 km / h to the place of the future eruption. Anomalies different by waveform and peak burst duration.

During the semi-annual tests of the Short-term Earthquake Prediction System, a packets of peaks of a small but equal amplitude with a burst duration of tens of minutes were noted, which was not typical for anomalies predicting an earthquake.

The correlation between the anomaly and the volcanic eruption was chosen to be the constant of the ratio of the distance from the sensor to the volcano to the time interval between the registration of the anomaly and the beginning of the volcanic eruption.

Here are some of the communications studies that I reported in the RES about the appearance of peaks of anomalies.

A comparison table for the time-passing data of the precursor (KaY-wave of a special form) and the data on the volcanic eruptions that these harbingers heralded.

From the table it is clearly visible:

1. The velocity of the wave travel coincides with the velocity of the KaY wave.

2. The prediction of volcanic eruptions is even more reliable than earthquakes, since the shape of the oscillogram eliminates the error due to interference.

Example of peaks:

On the left is the peak of the usual KaY wave.

On the right is the peak of a harbinger of the future eruption of the volcano.

(May 22, 2013. Costa Rica, eruption of the Turrialba volcano)

A special confirmation of the reality of the forecast can be noted for the case, which is extremely rare, in which an eruption of five volcanoes occurred on one day in Kamchatka.

On the anomalies that were recorded in Haifa four days before these eruptions, you can see four peaks (in the chart, the peak position zones on the time axis are highlighted). In this case, one of the peaks (second from the left) is twice as wide as the others. This indicates that in some cases the peaks can be "merged", superimposed one on another.

This recording was made April 14, 2014.

And on April 18 the press reported: "In Kamchatka, five volcanoes on the peninsula decided to start erupting simultaneously. If we list them from north to east, then a chain will be built from Shiveluch, Klyuchevskaya Sopka, Nameless, Kizimen and Karymsky. ""

(http://www.planetanovosti.com/news/pjat_kamchatskikh_vulkanov_nachali_odnovremennoe_izverzhenie/2014-04-18-6849 )

Extract from the Protocol of the meeting of the Russian Expert Council on the forecast of earthquakes, assessment of seismic hazard and risk (according to the results of 2014).

The meeting was held on January 27, 2015 at Nikoloyamskaya Street. 51.

Present: AV Nikolaev (Chairman of the Council), GA Sobolev (Deputy Chairman), AA Malovichko (deputy chairman), GM Nigmetov (deputy chairman), AI Ruzaykn (scientist secretary), EA Rogozhin ......etc.

15. Doclad of EG Mirmovich and AP Yagodin. The message was made by Mirmovich.

He gave information about the method of short-term forecast of strong earthquakes, based on the study of a low-frequency KaY-wave, originating in the far from the epicenter zone (thousands of kilometers).

The speed of the wave is about 100 km / h, the movement is directed to the epicenter. This makes it possible to predict a strong earthquake from observations of several stations ... There is a positive experience gained over 5 years.

KaY-wave was observed before the eruption of the volcano on Kamchatka, on October 16, Yagodin sent a message to Nikolaev a day before the eruption.

The following decisions were made at the meeting:

1. To take note of the reports heard at the meeting of RES ....

The method is recommended for R & D:

RUSSIAN EMERGENCY SITUATIONS MINISTRY

THE RUSSIAN ACADEMY OF SCIENCES

The Russian expert council on the forecast of earthquakes,

assessment of seismic hazard and risk (RES)

109004, Moscow, Nikoloyamskaya 51, tel. 912-36-18, fax. 912-75-93

July 26, 2013

Dear Mr. Yagodin!

Thank you for the information on the successful prediction of the eruption of Sheveluch volcano. For me, this was a complete surprise, since before, as far as I know, volcanic eruptions were predicted only on the basis of observations of local seismicity and "volcanic tremor." The results obtained allow us to take a fresh look at the nature of the Kozyrev-Yagodin wave, expand our understanding of the physical foundations and possibilities of the method developed by you.

It should be taken into account that in the world active development of volcanism is observed, a constant growth of volcanic danger. The result obtained demonstrates the close relationship of seismicity and volcanism with geodynamic processes in the lithosphere and the upper mantle of the Earth.

Now it is especially important to continue work on the development of global monitoring of KaY-wave.

As a member of the editorial board of the journal "Volcanology and Seismology", I invite you to speak in our magazine with information about the forecast of the eruption of Sheveluch volcano.

I wish you every success in your research.

Yours sincerely

A.Nikolaev

Professor of Geophysics

Currently, the author does not have a station to continue work, but it is possible to demonstrate interesting results of recent days. The peaks were recorded on the sensor of the author of the article and a message on the future eruption was sent to the Chairman of the REF Prof. E.A. Rogozhin four days before these eruptions in Kamchatka.

( https://utro.ru/news/2017/09/08/1339339.shtml )

"On the night of September 8, two volcanoes in Kamchatka threw ash columns a few kilometers in height. This was reported in the Kamchatka Volcanic Eruption Response Team (KVERT).

According to observers, the volcano Shiveluch twice per day threw ash - at 8 and 10 km in height .. »

The record of the anomaly shows that one of the volcanoes will erupt twice ...

According to the entry of September 15, 2017, it can be assumed that the anomaly predicted the eruption of the volcano ...

According to the distance from the sensor in Haifa to Mexico and the speed of the wave, in 120 hours after the anomaly in Haifa, volcano Popocatepetl erupted near the capital of the Mexico.

Given the extreme importance of predicting volcanoes and super volcanoes, these experiments are very important for accurate short-term forecasting of volcanic eruptions with a sufficient time reserve for the evacuation of citizens.

Alexandr Yagodin

24/09/2017